BCMPB Provincial Scale Mountian Pine Beetle Projection

SELES was used to implement a provincial scale mountain pine beetle model (BCMPB). Marvin Eng(1) Andrew Fall(2) Josie Hughes(3) Terry Shore(4) Bill Riel(4) Peter Hall(5) Adrian Walton(1)

(1) Research Branch, BC Forest Service (2) Gowlland Technologies Ltd. (3) Landscape Ecology Lab, University of Toronto (4) Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service (5) Forest Practices Branch, BC Forest Service

Objective
To provide a spatially and temporally explicit projection of the current MPB outbreak at a provincial scale. The purpose of providing the projection was to give senior managers and scientists information, at a provincial scale, which could be used in their decision-making processes.

Models Built

 * Mountain pine beetle projection model - discrete state transition model parameterized with 1999-2005 survey data.
 * Provincial-scale forest management model

Comments
This is an interesting example the management and beetle submodels were built by different developers working in parallel. This required a degree of cooperation and collaboration we had not tried before. I think the result was a better model.

More Information
All the reports and results from the project can be found at http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/HRE/bcmpb/